{jcomments on}[Au Rwanda, la police a annoncé l’arrestation de « terroristes » venus de la République démocratique du Congo. Six hommes ont été interpellés, dont le colonel Norbert Ndererimana dit « colonel Gaheza », le dirigeant d’un groupe armé basé dans la province du Nord Kivu, à l’est de la RDC. D’après la police, ils planifiaient des attaques ciblées au Rwanda et ils seraient liés au général Faustin Kayumba Nyamwasa, l’ancien chef d’état major de l’armée rwandaise exilé en Afrique du Sud.]
BURUNDI :
Burundi-Agriculture: La FAO lance un appel à l’aide en faveur du secteur agricole
New York, Etats-Unis – L’Organisation pour l’alimentation et l’agriculture (FAO) a lancé un appel mercredi en faveur d’un soutien international continu pour le Burundi, afin de lui permettre de développer son secteur agricole. ‘La paix au Burundi peut être consolidée par la stabilisation des communautés rurales du pays’, a déclaré la FAO dans un communiqué transmis à la PANA à New York. Le communiqué a indiqué que le plan d’action de 60 millions de dollars américains de l’agence en faveur du Burundi servait à 1,25 million de personnes dans le cadre d’une initiative de deux ans visant à accroître la production alimentaire, à promouvoir des activités génératrices de revenus comme la production de volaille, de légumes et de fruits, ainsi qu’à la transformation des aliments.
Il a également souligné que le fonds a encouragé les agriculteurs à unir leurs forces pour produire des excédents commercialisables.
‘Le but de notre aide est de soutenir les agriculteurs à passer de l’agriculture de subsistance à des formes d’agriculture économiquement plus viables’, a souligné Hubert Chauvet, représentant de la FAO au Burundi.
Alors que la population du Burundi devrait passer de 8,5 millions d’habitants présentement à 13 millions en 2025, la FAO souligne que : ‘assurer la production alimentaire locale pour une population croissante sera un important défi, dans la mesure où la presque totalité des terres arables du pays est déjà en train d’être exploitée’.
RWANDA :
Génocide rwandais: Agathe Habyarimana perd son procès contre un reportage
publié le 23/06/2011 / afp.com/Gerard Julien
PARIS – Agathe Habyarimana, veuve de l’ancien président rwandais dont l’assassinat est considéré comme l’élément déclencheur du génocide de 1994, a perdu jeudi le procès engagé en vue d’une interdiction éventuelle de la la diffusion d’un reportage sur le génocide programmé par la chaîne de télévision France 2.
Agathe Habyarimana, qui réside en région parisienne, avait assigné en référé France Télévisions et le producteur Tony Comiti pour le reportage sur le génocide — qui a fait, selon l’ONU, plus de 800.000 morts, dans leur immense majorité des membres de la minorité tutsi — programmé le 28 juin.
Deux autres Rwandais résidant en France, l’ex-lieutenant-colonel de l’armée rwandaise Marcel Bivugabagabo et le Dr Charles Twagira, également interviewés dans le documentaire, s’étaient joints à son action.
Le documentaire litigieux s’intitule “Génocide rwandais: des tueurs parmi nous'”.
Craignant une atteinte à leur présomption d’innocence, les demandeurs réclamaient le visionnage préalable du reportage et le cas échéant l’interdiction de sa diffusion.
Le juge des référés du tribunal de grande instance de Paris les a déboutés, jugeant que les demandeurs “n’apportent pas les éléments propres à laisser très sérieusement présumer que le journaliste aurait dans sa présentation du document manqué à son obligation de s’abstenir de toutes conclusions définitives, mais aurait au contraire manifesté un préjugé à leur égard, tenant de façon péremptoire pour acquise leur culpabilité avant tout jugement”.
Mme Habyarimana fait l’objet d’un mandat d’arrêt international émis en octobre 2009 par les autorités rwandaises pour génocide et crimes contre l’humanité et Kigali demande son extradition.
Placée sous contrôle judiciaire, elle doit comparaître à une date non déterminée devant la cour d’appel de Paris qui statuera sur la demande d’extradition du Rwanda. Une enquête a été également ouverte en 2008 à Paris à la suite d’une plainte la visant pour complicité de génocide. Par AFP
La police rwandaise annonce l’arrestation de terroristes venus de RDC
mercredi 22 juin 2011 / Par RFI / Au Rwanda, la police a annoncé l’arrestation de « terroristes » venus de la République démocratique du Congo. Six hommes ont été interpellés, dont le colonel Norbert Ndererimana dit « colonel Gaheza », le dirigeant d’un groupe armé basé dans la province du Nord Kivu, à l’est de la RDC. D’après la police, ils planifiaient des attaques ciblées au Rwanda et ils seraient liés au général Faustin Kayumba Nyamwasa, l’ancien chef d’état major de l’armée rwandaise exilé en Afrique du Sud.
La police rwandaise parle d’un véritable « réseau terroriste ». Un réseau basé dans le parc national des Virunga, en République démocratique du Congo, bénéficiant de soutiens en Ouganda et dirigé depuis l’Afrique du Sud. Selon Theos Badédgé, le porte-parole de la police rwandaise, les suspects ont avoué : ils recevaient leurs ordres de Faustin Kayumba Nyamwasa et de l’ancien ministre de la Défense Emmanuel Habyarimana, lui aussi en exil.
D’après la police, les attaques planifiées visaient notamment des stocks de carburant, des véhicules de transport de carburant, des personnalités rwandaises ou encore des diplomates étrangers. Ce n’est pas la première fois que l’ex-chef d’état major de l’armée est accusé.
L’année dernière déjà, Faustin Kayumba Nyamwasa avait été pointé du doigt lors d’une série d’attentats à la grenade à Kigali. De son coté l’intéressé, membre fondateur du Congrès National Rwandais un parti d’opposition en exil, a toujours démenti. Il accuse au contraire le régime de Paul Kagamé d’avoir tenté de l’assassiner il y a tout juste un an.
Rwanda: A Sweet Pill in the Health Sector
Arthur Asiimwe23 June 2011 / This week, a team of 22 professionals from Nigeria’s National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) visited Rwanda on a study tour of our numerous health schemes, both public and private.
Of particular interest was how Rwanda managed to roll-out a country-wide health insurance scheme (Mutuelle de santé) not seen or tested anywhere on the continent, and yet seems to be working seamlessly.
The team led by Nigeria’s former Health Minister Prof. Eyitayo Lambo is charged with designing a similar scheme to cater for nearly 70 percent of Nigeria’s population, mainly falling within the informal sector.
Nigeria has something similar to our own RAMA. The only difference is that RAMA caters for the entire Rwandan civil service while theirs caters for a small fraction of public servants working for the Federal government mainly in Abuja and Lagos.
In total, their equivalent of RAMA covers only 5 million people in a country of 150 million people.
From their facial expressions, the group seemed astonished. They wondered how an ordinary rural person without use of any coercive measures would appreciate the value of voluntarily contributing to an insurance scheme.
This, according to one of their colleagues who confided in me, was something that he had believed could only happen in the west.
Even more mind boggling was the new proposal, in which contributions for mutuelle would increase significantly based on the stratification that categorizes Rwandans according to their household incomes.
They wondered how the ordinary Rwandan would readily accept this new policy without any form of resistance.
The success, the Minister of Health Dr. Agnes Binagwaho said, lies in the lessons, experience, immense value and contribution that Rwandans have seen in the policy over the past 10 years of its existence.
Indeed, over the 10 years, Mutuelle de santé has marked a revolution in the health care system of this country and is probably one of the most significant policies that was introduced in post genocide Rwanda.
That is why, taking it to the next stage of ensuring its sustainability based on equity and fairness is something that any Rwanda would readily embrace.
A system that is heavily subsidized by government and donor funded cannot be sustainable for the future unless Rwandans themselves take full ownership of the process.
This ownership can only be achieved if we widen the base for benefactors and make contributions in accordance to our income levels. It makes no sense for a muturage in Rusizi to pay the same amount as a business man in Kigali’s Mateus.
Therefore, the new policy that comes into effect this July or August is aimed at cutting down on the imbalance but also open up the scheme to more people, especially the middle income earners and hence ensure its sustainability.
And this is why we should be proud of this scheme.
The latest Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) statistics show that with the enormous investments made to the sector especially facilitated by the ease to access health care services, Rwandan lives are changing in a dramatic way.
This year’s DHS results show that under-five mortality rate for every 1,000 live birth has significantly dropped from 152 in 2005 to 76 in 2010. Infant mortality rate is also showing a downward trend from 86 deaths in 2005 to 50 deaths by 2010 recorded at birth.
At least more and more Rwandan children are guaranteed a future devoid of any chronic diseases thanks to an ambitious vaccination program.
The rate of immunization for children aged between 12-23 months stood at 90 percent in 2010 compared to75 percent in 2005.
Today, 70 percent of the Rwandan mothers deliver from a health facility while 98 percent receive antenatal care. The percentage of the mothers who delivered from health centres stood at 30 percent in 2005.
One of the success stories of Rwanda’s Health care programs has been the family planning measures. And as such, fertility rates have dropped from 6.1 children for an average Rwanda woman to 4.6 by 2010.
This reduction can partly be attributed to the fact that more Rwandan mothers are beginning to use modern methods of family planning as the latest DHS results show.
More Rwandans will live to celebrate their 50th birthday, thanks to a life expectancy that has doubled in the last 15 years from 29 years in 1995.
The reasons for this remarkable progress are a matrix of so many factors. But the most outstanding innovation is the Mutuelle that has made health care affordable and accessible to all.
No doubt the journey still remains long. As progress is made in combating communicable diseases and as more and more Rwandans live longer, the attention shifts to resurgence of non-communicable diseases like cancer and diabetes.
Therefore, the next big challenge is designing policies and programs that deal with segment of diseases. The good news is that the foundation has been laid and if the momentum is maintained, then Rwanda’s health care system will continue to be a sweet pill to swallow.
RDC CONGO :
RD Congo: Fin de la visite officielle de Zuma
Pana 23/06/2011/ Le Cap, Afrique du Sud – Le président sud-africain, Jacob Zuma, est rentré mardi de la République démocratique du Congo (RDC) après une fructueuse visite de travail d’une journée, dans le cadre de laquelle il a co-présidé avec le président Joseph Kabila, la 7ème Commission bilatérale RDC-Afrique du Sud. Les deux pays ont signé en 2004 l’Accord de coopération générale qui fait la promotion active de la coopération politique, économique et sociale entre les deux pays. Cet accord, au fil des ans, a permis aux deux pays de signer plusieurs accords sectoriels et un protocole d’accord, incluant l’Accord de coopération sur le secteur de l’eau signé mardi.
L’implication de l’Afrique du Sud en RDC a pour objectif d’aider ce pays à se reconstruire et à se développer après la période de conflit qu’il a traversé.
En conséquence, les deux chefs d’Etat ont pu passer en revue les progrès dans le cadre de l’exécution des projets bilatéraux tels que les 35 accords et le protocole d’accord, le recensement des membres de la Fonction publique en RDC qui a permis de se débarrasser des ‘fonctionnaires fantômes, la formation des soldats ainsi que celle des diplomates congolais.
Le porte-parole de M. Zuma, Zizi Kodwa, a déclaré que les deux pays avaient par ailleurs entrepris de concrétiser leur partenariat dans des domaines-clé tels que l’énergie, l’agriculture, la coopération économique, le développement des infrastructures, l’exploitation minière et la coopération en matière de sécurité.
En outre, les deux présidents se sont félicités de l’accord de cessez-le-feu entre les factions belligérantes au Soudan, en particulier pour la résolution du conflit d’Abyei, après avoir passé en revue la situation politique et sécuritaire sur le continent.
Ils ont tous deux préconisé une mise en oeuvre rapide et ininterrompue de l’Accord de paix global (CPA) entre le Nord et le Sud-Soudan.
Les deux chefs d’Etat ont par ailleurs exprimé leur forte préoccupation concernant l’escalade du conflit en Libye, qui a entraîné des pertes en vies humaines, le déplacement des populations civiles et la destruction de biens.
Ils ont également constaté que la situation actuelle en Libye avait précipité une crise humanitaire terrible.
UGANDA :
Government explains Col Muzoora’s death
by Edward Ssekika / Wednesday, 22 June 2011
Government has dismissed claims that Col Edson Muzoora could have been killed in exile and his body returned home, saying, instead, that the UPDF dissident died in Uganda where he was taken ill after sneaking here from a neigbouring country early last month.
Muzoora’s treated body was dumped at his ancestral home at Kyeigombe in Kyabugimbi sub-county, Bushenyi district.
Addressing journalists on the matter at the Uganda Media Centre yesterday, for the first time following several days of speculation surrounding Muzoora’s death, Internal affairs minister, Hilary Onek, insisted that contrary to earlier claims within security circles that Muzoora might have been killed in a foreign country, he died in Bushenyi district after failing to respond to medical treatment he received there while in hiding.
“On May 27, 2011, police received reports of Col Muzoora’s death and how his body was dumped at his home. Immediately, police, with the help of the army and other security agencies, launched investigations into this puzzling death,” Onek said.
He said preliminary police investigations revealed that the renegade UPDF colonel sneaked into Uganda and stayed in Bushenyi until his death. In their investigations, Onek said, the police extracted a lot of information from key witnesses and also used phone printouts.
“Our preliminary investigations reveal that Col Muzoora sneaked into Uganda on May 5, 2011 from a neigbouring country” Onek said. “After he entered the country, he went directly to the home of Mzee William Mukaira in Bushenyi. While there, he was visited by a selected few people, including his wife.”
Onek told journalists that while at Mukaira’s home, Muzoora was taken ill and was attended to by three doctors, including one Dr Aggrey Byamukama, a prominent doctor and proprietor of Byamaka Pharmacy in Mbarara town. Muzoora, Onek said, did not access formal medical treatment.
“He finally died on May 27, 2011 while at the home of Mzee Mukaira” Onek emphasized.
Pressed to name the country from where Muzoora “sneaked” into Uganda, Onek said for purposes of diplomatic harmony, he could not reveal the country, as doing so could spark a diplomatic row.
“We are going to meet ambassadors from this neighboring country and discuss what happened, because they knew what was going on,” he said.
What killed him?
Muzoora deserted the army in 2003 and fled Uganda allegedly through the Rwanda border into exile. He was allegedly the operations and field commander of the People’s Redemption Army, a shadowy rebel outfit, and is believed to have worked alongside renegade Colonels Samson Mande and Anthony Kyakabale, both leaving in exile.
Onek said police is still investigating the actual cause of Muzoora’s death and denied claims that security forces might have had a hand in it.
“We want to establish what actually killed him,” he said. “Police pathologists did not participate in the postmortem. They just received the report and the same person who carried out the postmortem is now a suspect.”
Six arrested
Assan Kasingye, the police political commissar, said they have so far arrested six people in connection with Muzoora’s mysterious death. They include Dr Byamukama whom police believe treated Muzoora at Mukaira’s home prior to his death.
Others in police custody are: Mzee Mukaira, who is also the FDC chairman for Bushenyi district; Obed Musinguzi alias Ssebagala, a truck driver; Boniface Mumbere; Abel Kacwano, a retired UPDF soldier; and Grace Twinomujuni, a school nurse at Valley College Bushenyi, owned by Mzee Mukaira.
Muzoora’s wife, Vasta Muzoora, was interrogated and released. Onek said the suspects would soon be arraigned in court for formal charges. Police will prefer murder charges against Mzee Mukaira, who will also be charged with giving sanctuary to a UPDF dissident and treason suspect.
The 80-year-old is admitted in Mulago hospital as investigations continue.
Uganda to launch central bank rate in July-official
KAMPALA, June 23 (Reuters) – Uganda will shift its monetary policy to target inflation rather than money supply growth and will launch a central bank interest rate in July, a top bank official said on Thursday.
The central Bank of Uganda (BoU) has traditionally watched the amount of money in circulation in line with the level of economic activity instead of price stability.
“We’re moving from quantity to price using short-term interest rates. We’ll start targeting inflation by using the central bank rate (CBR),” Louis Kasekende, the bank’s deputy governor, said during a seminar for reporters.
Adam Mugume, the central bank’s director for research, said Uganda’s economy and financial system had evolved in the past several years, making the targeting of money supply an ineffective economic tool.
Mugume said the bank will announce its CBR and inflationary targets monthly, starting July 4 this year.
“The current monetary framework doesn’t address other things like growth and interest rates,” he said.
The east African economy’s year-on-year inflation rate rose for a seventh straight month to 16.0 percent in May from 14.1 percent in April, its highest level since May 1994.
The central bank did not say whether the soaring inflationary pressures, which stoked violent protests in April and May, influenced the monetary policy change.
The shilling slid to an all-time low of 2,508 to the dollar on Tuesday, but has since reversed its losses after the central bank intervened by selling the U.S. currency.
(Reporting by Elias Biryabarema; editing by George Obulutsa and Stephen Nisbet)
(For more Reuters Africa coverage and to have your say on the top issues, visit: af.reuters.com
SOUTH AFRICA:
Heavy security as US First Lady visits Hector memorial
June 23 2011 at 11:13am
REUTERS
U.S. first lady Michelle Obama holds up a carrot she just harvested as she gardens at a community service project at Vhuthilo Community Center in Soweto township, Johannesburg June 22, 2011. REUTERS/Charles Dharapak/Pool (SOUTH AFRICA – Tags: POLITICS)
Botho Molosankwe
Dressed in black suits, earpieces attached to their ears and sunglasses shielding their eyes, members of the US Secret Service stalked the grounds of the Hector Pieterson Museum.
Above, snipers paced the roof and surveyed the area through binoculars awaiting the arrival of US First Lady Michelle Obama.
Joburg metro police officers had their hands full trying to keep curious bystanders away from the area, cordoned off with police tape.
The media were not exempt and were subjected to a thorough search by the Secret Service.
Cameras were sniffed by dogs, then physically tested. Bags were searched with a metal detector before another agent rummaged through them.
U.S. first lady Michelle Obama (R) comforts Antoinette Sithole, sister of Hector Pietersen, after laying a wreath at the Hector Pietersen Memorial in Soweto, June 22, 2011. Hector Pietersen became a symbol of the apartheid struggle in South Africa when he was killed by police during the 1976 student uprising in Soweto . REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko (SOUTH AFRICA – Tags: POLITICS)
REUTERS
“Peeping into people’s bags feels like I’m imposing,” the agent said with a smile as he looked into a woman’s bag.
And once the bags and equipment had passed the test, their owners were searched.
Among people waiting on the streets was a group of children from the nearby Thembi’s Day Care. They held placards written “Welcome to South Africa Mrs Obama” in bright colours and singing Mrs Obama ha o na ya tshwanang le wena (roughly translated: “Mrs Obama there’s no one like you”).
Among them was Desiree Kenny, a Lenasia woman who staged a lone protest outside the museum hoping that the journalists gathered there would listen to her story.
Kenny claims that Sol Plaatje was her great-grandfather and that people used her family to obtain privileged information about him and were using it to benefit financially without compensating the family.
And as the sirens drew near, Khumalo Street erupted.
Among the people who rushed there were four teachers from Hoërskool Vorentoe in Joburg and their principal.
Hans Seastad, Dries Heydenrich, Wyand Krynauw, Chris Lodolff and Henry Maruping were having lunch at one of the restaurants in nearby Vilakazi Street when they heard the commotion.
“This is history for us, seeing that we come from apartheid. We hear she has great power and she is ruling her household, so we wanted to come and see her,” the teachers said.
Obama joined Pieterson’s sister, Antoinette Sithole, in laying a bouquet of white flowers at the memorial, observing a moment of silence before entering the adjoining museum.
Today she was due to visit Robben Island, where Nelson Mandela spent 18 of his 27 years in prison, and meet Desmond Tutu, before heading to Botswana for a safari on Saturday. – Additional reporting by Sapa
TANZANIA:
Tanzania: E-Banking Comes of Age
Abduel Elinaza 22 June 2011 / Automated Teller machines (ATMs) were the first well-known gadgets to offer electronic banking services to retail customers. Next came phone banking that allowed subscribers to call their banks’ computer systems using ordinary phones and performing bank transactions through the phone keypad.
Personal computer banking superseded phone banking and allowed users to interact with their banks through computers with a dial-up modem connection to the phone network.
The mother of all Information Communications Technology (ICT) on banking however is e-banking, which refers to the deployment of IT services by banks using the infrastructure of the digital age. The technology lowers transaction costs and creates new types of banking opportunities, which also overcome barriers of time and distance.
For users, e-banking provides current information and 24-hour access to banking services in addition to the familiar browser interface. The primary services offered through e-banking are money transfer, bills and tax payments as well as account balance checking.
E-banking in Tanzania has made a number of in roads, although the transactions are still cash-intensive. Citibank, Bank M and Standard Chartered are among the pioneers of e-banking, especially in paying taxes. The three banks use AsyBank system, which is a customs payment scheme that reads Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) commissioner’s general taxpaying account.
According to Bank M Chairman Nimrod Mkono, Bank M perceives the AsyBank technology as the backbone of financial service industry in the country.
“we have been in the forefront of bringing to this market products and services geared to meet the aspirations of our clients, with levels of commitment unique to us and accompanied by delivery standards unheard of in the local markets,” Mr Mkono said when launching Money.Mapato service.
Money.Mapato guarantees speedy payment of taxes, according to Mr Mkono, “With most banks having long queues, some taxpayers opt to pay taxes a day or two before the due date to avoid penalties but with Money Mapato, tax payment becomes smooth and stress-free.”
Acting Director of Accounting Operations with TRA Happiness Nkya says the revenue collection agency is delighted by Bank M initiative to simplify procedures for tax payment and enable collection of more revenues, “Bank M has reduced the cost of doing business, especially cutting down the number of days for clearing of goods by customs.”
The bank has integrated its systems to TRA’s ASYCUDA tax management software to payment of taxes electronically and notifying the authority within short time. Other banks–Citibank and Standard chartered-have the similar technology.
In banking, ICT is basically used under two different venues-communication and connectivity as well as business process reengineering. IT enables development of sophisticated products, better market infrastructure, implementation of reliable techniques for control of risks and helps the financial intermediaries to reach geographically distant and diversified markets.
The Citibank’s online banking, CitiDirect, speaks volume of IT in banking. It is a powerful new way that the bank has devised, bringing all banking functions within reach by the entire organisation.
“CitiDirect lets you access your accounts-real-time -and an ever-expanding portfolio of industry-leading products and services through the web you can be more efficient, more flexible and more in control of your banking,” Citibank says in a statement.
Almost all leading commercial banks in the country now have internet banking services. There are 42 banks in the country, led by the National Microfinance Bank (NMB) in term of profit, but with Bank M in terms of IT advancement. But, despite the IT advancement and almost 1,000 ATMs countrywide, long queues in banking halls remain common.
NMB has introduced PesaFaster product in attempt to reduce the queues. The new product allows NMB customers to send money to any person even if the receiver does not have an account or ATM card with NMB.
According to US based Information for Development Programme (InfoDev), online banking allows customers to get current account balances at any time and if the banking transaction does not require physical interaction.
In Latin America and Africa, e-banking has however been less successful, according InfoDev. Developing a successful e-banking for poor people entails managing a host of inter-related issues-technology, pricing, financial literacy, functionality, partnerships, delivery channels, POS distribution and regulation.
KENYA:
United Kingdom demands Kenya repay stolen elementary education funds
Associated Press / June 23, 2011 / NAIROBI — Revelations that $45 million meant to pay for elementary students’ education was stolen is turning into political poison in Kenya, where activists yesterday locked themselves in the education minister’s offices to demand his arrest.
The United Kingdom, a major donor to Kenya, told the government that the portion of stolen funds that Britain donated must be repaid. Britain said it would not give the Kenyan government any more money until there is “convincing evidence’’ of substantial improvements in the government’s integrity and financial management.
Kenyan leaders so far have passed the blame despite calls for officials at the Ministry of Education to resign. The department’s minister, Sam Ongeri, told Parliament last week that he is not to blame because he was not in office when the thefts began in 2005. Ongeri said he helped in detecting the fraud.
“My conscience is free and clear because I have done my duty to the best of my ability,’’ he told Parliament.
President Mwai Kibaki received praise from around the world when he implemented the Free Primary School Education Program in 2003, a top election pledge. The program enrolled more than 1 million children who had never sat in a classroom. But Kibaki’s failure to keep another election promise — to fight corruption — has seen those gains tarnished.
The United States, which provided funding for Kibaki’s education program, suspended funding last year, following the lead of Britain, which stopped donating in 2009. Before the suspension Britain gave nearly $90 million over five years.
In 2009 a government audit found that education officials had stolen more than $1 million. But last week a more thorough audit found that roughly $45 million was taken.
Kenya: shilling in free fall
June 23, 2011 12:30 pm by Katrina Manson
Like the Ugandan shilling last week, the Kenyan shilling hit an all-time low against the dollar this week, as the country battles rising inflation, a widening current account deficit and speculation.
Having fallen even faster than its neighbour, the Kenyan currency is down 13 percent to a record low at 91.90 shillings to the dollar on Wednesday, making it the world’s third-worst performing currency this year.
Many observers pointed fingers at the central bank. Its 25 basis points cut in interest rates in January to 4.75 per cent, in over-hasty recognition of good growth prospects, seems to have backfired and boosted inflation.
“It’s a bit like they cracked the whip out only to realise they have to jerk back and bring all the kids back into line,” Christopher Hartland-Peel at Exotix, a frontier investment boutique, told the FT.
In the face of the rising cost of food and fuel, inflation rose to 12.95 per cent in the year to May, up from 3.88 percent the year before and well beyond the 5 per cent target. Commercial bank rates have stayed high, with a spread of about 9 per cent on top of a base rates that have declined from 9.5 percent since September 2007.
In an effort to master inflation, the central bank has since January been forced to reverse the cut and bump rates up twice, to 6.25 percent, and increase the amount of cash banks are required to hold as reserves, from 4.50 percent to 4.75 percent, the first change since July 2009.
It has yet to bear fruit. Standard Chartered’s head of Africa research, Razia Khan, urged the bank to hike rates further when its monetary policy committee next meets in July. She estimates inflation could reach more than 22 percent by the end of the year and that inaction had “exacerbated” the shilling’s depreciation. “Very bold action is required to reverse this shilling weakness,” she said in Nairobi this week.
The World Bank has already revised down its growth forecast in its half-yearly review of the country’s economic prospects, out this month.
Gone is the 5.3 percent estimate for 2011, replaced with 4.8 percent, down on the 5.6 percent growth recorded in 2010. Kenya’s Vision 2030 – which sets out the country’s plan to attain middle-income status within two decades – demands 10 percent a year, but the official forecast was always more conservative, at 3.5-4.5 percent for 2011 according to the end-2010 report from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.
The World Bank still says were growth to accelerate to 6 percent, Kenya could reach middle income status, which it defines as per capita income of $1,000 a year, by 2019. At 3.7 percent a year growth – Kenya’s average growth last decade – it won’t reach such a milestone until 2037.
The World Banks says Kenya can afford a fiscal deficit of 4 per cent of GDP, but it is running at 6 per cent, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio towards 50 per cent, beyond the government’s 45 per cent target. By 2010/11, the debt to GDP ratio already stood at 47.9 per cent, up from 34.6 per cent in 2007/8. Its budget, out this month, maintains expansionary spending: its development budget has already risen from 6.7 percent of GDP in 2007/8 to 10.1 per cent of GDP in 2010/11, financed thanks to domestic borrowing.
Unlike Uganda, whose central bank has twice intervened to sell dollars and shore up its shilling, Kenya says it has no plans to “interfere” in the currency market. But local newspapers report the central bank governor will investigate after three (as yet unnamed) commercial banks it accuses of speculation. A matter of shooting the messengers, instead of heeding the message?
CHINA/AFRICA:
Chine-Afrique: S’inspirer du modèle de développement chinois
Economie-Chine-Afrique – La Communauté économique des Etats de l’Afrique de l’Ouest va étudier la possibilité de s’inspirer de l’approche intégrée du développement qui a transformé la Chine en un géant économique dans l’intérêt des citoyens de cette région, a déclaré à Beijing le président de la Commission de la CEDEAO, James Victor Gbeho. Lors d’une réunion mardi avec le vice-ministre chinois des Affaires étrangères, Zhai Jun, au début de sa visite d’une semaine pour mobiliser un soutien supplémentaire de la Chine à l’Afrique de l’Ouest, M. Gbeho a indiqué qu’une telle approche du développement permettrait à la région de réaliser les dividendes de la démocratie plus rapidement. ‘La CEDEAO va continuer à considérer la République populaire de Chine comme une source d’inspiration pour promouvoir le développement économique et l’intégration de la région ouest-africaine’, a dit M. Gbeho, selon un communiqué de la Commission de la CEDEAO. Le président de la Commission conduit une délégation de haut niveau de la CEDEAO pour des négociations visant à renforcer la coopération entre la Chine et les Etats membres de la communauté.
Il a exprimé la gratitude du président et des Etats membres de la CEDEAO au gouvernement et au peuple de la République populaire de Chine, pour leur contribution au développement de l’Afrique de l’Ouest.
En accueillant la délégation, le ministre chinois a pour sa part déclaré que l’Afrique avait beaucoup à apprendre de la Chine, qui a donné la priorité au développement de ses infrastructures comme le moyen le plus sûr de permettre le développement de son peuple de manière intégrée.
Il a assuré à la délégation que la Chine continuerait à entretenir ses relations avec la région ouest-africaine à travers un renforcement de la coopération pour la réalisation des objectifs de développement de l’Afrique de l’Ouest.
La délégation de la CEDEAO a également visité le Fonds de développement Chine-Afrique (CADFund), où le président Gbeho a sollicité le soutien du Fonds au développement des infrastructures et de l’agriculture de la région.
Il a énuméré les domaines prioritaires comme les investissements dans les secteurs de l’énergie, des routes, du transport ferroviaire, de l’eau et de l’agriculture, en soulignant que malgré ses immenses potentialités, la région était caractérisée par une agriculture de subsistance à faible productivité.
Afin de renforcer la sécurité alimentaire, le patron de la CEDEAO a indiqué que les efforts étaient intensifiés pour introduire un élément commercial dans l’agriculture régionale, en ajoutant que certains Etats membres de la Communauté avaient déjà élaboré des programmes avec l’objectif d’introduire des éléments commerciaux dans ce secteur.
Le CAFFund est actif dans la région avec des investissements dans les secteurs de l’énergie, entre autre.
Cette visite, qui se tient sous les auspices du Protocole d’accord de 2008 entre la CEDEAO et le Conseil chinois pour la promotion du commerce international (CCPIT), sera également une occasion pour la délégation de la CEDEAO de s’entretenir avec des responsables de la Chambre de commerce sino-africaine, de l’Export-Import Bank of China, de la Banque chinoise de développement et avec le vice-ministre chinois du Commerce, Fu Ziying.
Pana 23/06/2011
EN BREF, CE 23 Juin 2011 … AGNEWS/DAM,NY, 23/06/2011
