[The differences between Nato and Russia over the West’s bombing campaign in Libya were laid bare yesterday after Moscow accused the alliance of interpreting a UN resolution on military intervention to suit its own ends.]

BURUNDI :

Incarcéré au Burundi, il est disculpé par une plaignante

Nicolas Jacquard/ Le Parisien/ 05.07.2011

Patrice Faye contre-attaque. Du fond de sa cellule de la prison de Bujumbura, capitale du Burundi, ce Français de 57 ans réfute les accusations de viol portées contre lui par cinq jeunes filles. Aventurier installé au Burundi depuis 1978, il a été jugé il y a deux semaines et encourt trente-cinq ans de réclusion. Le verdict est attendu mi-août.

« Tous ceux qui le connaissent savent qu’il n’a pas pu faire ça », murmure sa sœur, Mireille. Une lettre de sa principale accusatrice vient d’ailleurs d’être dévoilée. Aïcha écrit pour demander pardon. « (…) Pour dire vrai, les accusations sur Patrice sont fausses, et je ne m’attendais pas à des conséquences comme celles-là. »

Spécialiste des serpents et des crocodiles du Nil, Patrice Faye est le fondateur d’une association humanitaire qui recueille les enfants des rues. C’est dans un de ses centres qu’Aïcha a été prise en charge. « Mais elle se prostituait et se disputait avec tout le monde, raconte Mireille. Patrice l’a mise dehors. »

De fausses descriptions

Aïcha trouve alors refuge dans une autre association, la fondation Stamm, où elle se confie à une chargée de mission française, Céline, qui transmet le dossier à la justice. « J’ai fait tout ça en espérant que Céline aurait pitié et m’aiderait », reprend Aïcha. Quatre autres jeunes filles appuient ses révélations. « J’ai téléphoné à mon amie Metoucela pour lui dire de confirmer ce qu’on allait lui demander et de prévenir les autres qu’elles fassent la même chose », avoue Aïcha.

Examinées dans un centre spécialisé, trois de ces jeunes filles seraient vierges, indique la défense de Patrice Faye, qui ajoute que les déclarations des jeunes filles sur l’anatomie du Français ne cadrent pas avec la réalité. Les cinq ont en effet indiqué que l’homme était circoncis, ce qui n’est pas le cas. « Je vis un cauchemar, écrit l’intéressé de sa prison. Je viens d’être trahi par ceux-là même pour lesquels je me battais. » Une des accusatrices est parrainée par les parents de Patrice, vivant en France, auxquels elle adressait régulièrement des lettres affectueuses. « Si les prétendus viols dont ces filles auraient été victimes ont commencé en 2006, comme elles le disent, pourquoi aurait-elle adressé une telle lettre? » s’interroge Mireille.

Un député de la CAE demande aux dignitaires politiques de payer les impôts

www.afriquinfos.com/ Xinhua/ Mardi 5 juillet 2011

BUJUMBURA (Xinhua) – Le député François Bizimana de l’Assemblée Législative de la Communauté des Etats de l’Afrique de l’Est (CAE) demande aux dignitaires et mandataires politiques du Burundi de payer les impôts pour le développement du pays comme ils contribuent au bien-être des partis politiques dont ils sont issus.

“Les responsables de ce pays, surtout les mandataires politiques devraient s’acquitter de leurs contributions en matière d’impôts puisqu’ils contribuent pour le fonctionnement de leurs partis. Je ne vois pas pourquoi ils ne contribueraient pas pour la prospérité de leur pays, sinon ça serait interprété comme une sorte d’érosion patriotique”, a indiqué François Bizimana lundi à Xinhua dans le prolongement des réactions par rapport à la gestion de l’indépendance au lendemain de la célébration du 49ème anniversaire de l’indépendance du Burundi le 1er juillet.

François Bizimana part aussi du fait que les citoyens modestes, qui ont des revenus maigres, paient les impôts alors que ces dignitaires et mandataires politiques ne les paient pas alors qu’ ils perçoivent un salaire plus ou moins confortable par rapport à celui des gens qui s’acquittent de cet impôt.

Pour lui, ces dignitaires et mandataires politiques qui perçoivent des salaires à partir de l’argent collecté à travers les impôts et taxes payés par le peuple et qui privilégient leurs formations politiques devraient savoir que les partis ne rassemblent qu’une partie de la population.

“Je sais très bien qu’ils contribuent d’une manière substantielle au fonctionnement de leurs partis allant même jusqu’ à donner 10% de leurs traitements. Je ne vois donc pas comment un responsable qui a bénéficié de la confiance du peuple s’occupe du bien-être de son parti au détriment de tout un pays puisqu’un parti politique rassemble une partie de la population”, a ajouté le député qui regrette de ne pas payer lui-même cet impôt puisque , dit-il, “la loi ne me l’oblige pas”.

Au Burundi, ce sont plusieurs catégories de gens qui ne paient pas d’impôts, notamment les élus du peuple et les membres du gouvernement.

L’opposition propose les conditions de négociations avec le pouvoir

Lundi 4 juillet 2011/ Xinhua/ www.afriquinfos.com

BUJUMBURA (Xinhua) – Le parti Sahwanyu Frodebu a proposé lundi les conditions de négociations avec le pouvoir de Bujumbura, en réaction à l’appel lancé par le chef de l’Etat burundais aux leaders de l’opposition partis en exil de revenir au pays et d’entamer un dialogue avec le pouvoir.

« Il y a quand même quelque chose de positif qui change (…). Il faut qu’il y ait un contact entre le président de la République et les politiciens qui sont partis à l’extérieur pour qu’ils puissent discuter sur les conditions d’être présents dans le pays si les négociations doivent avoir lieu à l’intérieur du pays », propose Frédéric Bamvuginyumvira, le vice-président du parti Sahwanya Frodebu, parti de l’opposition et dont le porte-parole, en la personne de Pancrace Cimpaye, est parmi ces leaders en exil.

Frédéric Bamvuginyumvira dont le parti est dans la coalition ADC- Ikibiri qui regroupe les partis d’opposition explique ses propos par le souci de voir le gouvernement négocier avec toute la coalition ADC et non avec la seule partie de l’ADC en exil.

« Au niveau de l’ADC, notre souhait est qu’on puisse négocier comme ADC avec le pouvoir et non pas la partition ADC. Il y en a qui sont partis à l’extérieur, il y en a qui sont restés au pays, il faut qu’ils soient ensemble pour qu’on ait quand même une même voix », a expliqué le vice-président du parti Sahwanya Frodebu.

Le 1er juillet 2011, dans son discours à la nation lors de la célébration du 49ème anniversaire de l’indépendance du Burundi, le président burundais Pierre Nkurunziza avait lancé un appel aux leaders politiques en exil de rentrer pour entamer un dialogue avec le pouvoir et non des négociations comme l’entend le vice- président du Frodebu Frédéric Bamvuginyumvira.

RWANDA :

Rwanda: Locals Have Restored Their Dignity – Kagame

Edmund Kagire/The New Times/5 July 2011

Kigali — President Paul Kagame, yesterday, said that the Liberation struggle that, 17 years ago, aimed at restoring the dignity of the Rwandan people, has been achieved and what remains is to build on that foundation.

The Head of State made the remarks while addressing thousands of people who turned up for the celebrations to mark the 17th anniversary of Liberation, at Amahoro National Stadium.

At a colourful ceremony that drew top government officials, several foreign delegations, diplomatic corps and thousands of jubilant citizens, President Kagame said that the country has come a long way, leaving behind a dark history and embarking on a road to development.

He noted that the day serves as a reminder of where the country has come from—an ugly past which no other country would have wished to experience, to an impressive rate of progress today and an even more promising future ahead.

The President noted that the struggle to fully restore the dignity of the Rwandan people, improve their standards of living, accord them peace and security, good health, equip them with skills and lead them to the desired levels of development, is a process that continues.

The Head of State pointed out that the country has overcome the hardest of the challenges and achieved a lot over the last 17 years, but the best is yet to come as the country continues to liberate itself in different ways.

He said that while a lot has been achieved, it was not a smooth sail, as the country had to confront many detractors and stumbling blocks, adding, however, that over time, Rwanda has been able to overcome them and continue on the path to progress.

President Kagame noted that over the years, Rwanda has been able to confront its persecutors on all fronts, adding that, at no time did Rwandans fear critics or whatever they said because they knew the truth was on their side.

The President said that the most important thing is for Rwandans to remain focussed on the struggle to preserve their dignity and at the same time defend it selflessly.

In reference to a testimony given earlier by Telesphore Rucibiraro, a resident of Gakenke District, the Head of State said that every Rwandan has a positive story to tell from the liberation struggle and how their lives have changed.

Rucibiraro, 49, a resident of Muhunga sector, Gakenke fled to DR Congo in 1994 but returned home in 1996 after he was convinced by RPA soldiers that Rwanda was safe. He has not looked back and today he is one of the model farmers in the country.

President Kagame said that the achievements of the citizens speak for themselves, adding that it is this approach that silences detractors because actions speak louder than words.

The Head of State emphasised that Rwandans reserve the right to tell their story and only they can shape their own destiny. He, however, said that Rwandans will cooperate with whoever wants work with them.

The President commended the people who played a role in the struggle, including those who sacrificed their lives, particularly the soldiers, noting that those who died never lost their lives in vain.

The ceremony was characterised by a colourful parade by the Rwanda Defense Forces (RDF) and the Rwandan National Police, as well as performances by local musicians.

RDC CONGO:

RDC: à Nakiele, des femmes victimes de viol rejetées par leur mari

De Emmanuel PEUCHOT (AFP) /05072011

NAKIELE — “Mon mari n’accepte plus de partager le lit avec moi. Je dors par terre”: comme Adèle, des femmes sont rejetées par leur époux depuis qu’elles ont dit avoir été violées début juin par des soldats à Nakiele, dans l’est de la République démocratique du Congo (RDC).

“Mon mari refuse aussi les repas que je lui prépare. Il mange ce que mes soeurs lui font. Je ne comprends pas pourquoi on doit m’abandonner”, poursuit la jeune femme âgée de 19 ans, mère d’un enfant de 6 mois.

A Nakiele, un village de 12.300 habitants perché sur la crète d’une colline dans les moyens plateaux du territoire de Fizi, dans la province du Sud-Kivu (est), 121 femmes ont déclaré au médecin de l’hôpital avoir été victimes de viols commis dans la nuit du 11 au 12 juin par des soldats ayant fui un centre militaire.

Depuis, plus d’une dizaine d’entre elles ont été rejetées par leur mari.

Le 11 juin en fin de matinée dans ce village isolé — la piste étroite qui y mène s’arrête 2 km plus loin –, à l’arrivée de plus de 150 soldats déserteurs commandés par un colonel, ancien membre d’une milice Maï Maï, les hommes ont fui dans la brousse.

Ils ont abandonné femmes et enfants par peur d’être utilisés comme porteur par les militaires qui les frappent s’ils refusent. Seuls une poignée sont restés, dont le chef du village et le médecin de l’hôpital avec ses infirmiers.

Lors des opérations militaires successives menées depuis 2009 contre les groupes armés dans la région, les soldats passent dans les villages et “demandent des rations, une chèvre, et les femmes restent en toute quiétude. Mais cette fois ça a tourné mal”, explique à l’AFP le chef de la localité de Nakiele, Losema Etamo Ngoma.

Quand son mari est revenu chez lui le matin du 12 juin après le départ des soldats, Sifa, 20 ans lui a dit avoir été violée.

“Il m’a dit que maintenant j’étais une femme de militaire, que je devais suivre les soldats et ne pas rester ici. Mais il ne m’a pas encore chassée. Je ne comprends pas pourquoi il dit ça”, dit-elle en nouant et dénouant machinalement le noeud de l’étoffe qui enserre dans son dos son enfant d’un an.

Souvent en RDC le viol reste un tabou. Les victimes se taisent par crainte d’être rejetées par leur mari, leur famille et aussi leur communauté.

A Nakiele, “les femmes ont eu le courage de le dire, il y a eu un phénomène collectif, et la sensibilisation d’ONG pour qu’elles se déclarent”, relève Eugène Byamoni, un psychologue qui a entendu une cinquantaine d’entre elles les 16 et 17 juin.

“J’ai honte de passer dans le village. Je suis l’objet de critiques, de moqueries, on dit que je suis une femme de militaire, porteuse de maladie (ndlr: le Sida)”, dit d’une voix faible Dekila, 28 ans. Son mari lui a dit “de partir et de laisser le lit”.

“Il faut réunir les hommes et les femmes, les sensibiliser, expliquer que le malheur qui est arrivé n’est pas de la faute des femmes”, ajoute-elle.

“Depuis que ce problème a éclaté, j’ai réuni un groupe de dix sages pour parler avec ces hommes, pour qu’ils puissent encore vivre avec ces femmes, leur dire que ce qui est arrivé aux femmes l’a été par la force, contre leur gré, et qu’ils doivent supporter cela”, se désole le chef du village.

A la fin de l’entretien avec le journaliste, il dit avoir une “recommandation”: “le groupe de sages n’a pas la méthodologie, il faudrait que des spécialistes viennent leur apporter des méthodes, le plus vite possible, sinon les foyers vont continuer à se disloquer”.

Dans deux autres villages proches, 127 femmes ont aussi dit avoir été violées par les soldats.

Assemblée parlementaire francophone: La 37ème session axée sur la démocratie

Pana /05/07/2011

Afrique centrale – RD Congo .Kinshasa, RD Congo – Le débat général de la 37ème session de l’Assemblée parlementaire francophone prévue du 5 au 8 juillet à Kinshasa sera axé sur la paix, la démocratie, les élections et le développement économique, indique un communiqué du Bureau de l’Assemblée parlementaire francophone (APF), transmis lundi à la PANA, dans la capitale congolaise. Selon le communiqué, ces sujets d’actualité ont été choisis pour réfléchir sur la nouvelle donne politique, au moment où d’importants mouvements pro-démocratiques voient le jour dans plusieurs pays de l’espace francophone et où de très nombreux scrutins y sont prévus dans les prochains mois. La 37ème session de l’Assemblée parlementaire francophone regroupera plus de 250 parlementaires venus d’environ 50 pays de l’espace francophone, dont les présidents d’Assemblée nationale du Burkina Faso, du Bénin, de la République centrafricaine, du Gabon, du Maroc, de la Mauritanie, du Niger et de Québec, ainsi que le président de la Communauté économique et monétaire de l’Afrique centrale (CEMAC).

L’assemblée plénière de l’APF se tiendra du 7 au 8 juillet et la cérémonie d’ouverture solennelle sera marquée par les interventions du président de la République Démocratique du Congo (RDC), Joseph Kabila Kabange, du secrétaire général de l’Organisation internationale de la Francophonie, Abdou Diouf, et du président de l’APF, Jacques Chignon.

On rappelle que la tenue de l’APF à Kinshasa précède d’un an l’organisation du sommet de la Francophonie prévu en 2012 dans cette même ville.

RDC : Le sit-in de l’UDPS dispersé dans la violence

afrikarabia2.blogs.courrierinternational.com/ 2011/07/04

Une manifestation de l’opposition congolaise a été dispersée violemment par la police, à Kinshasa ce lundi matin, devant la Commission électorale indépendante (CENI). Un premier bilan fait état d’un mort et de plusieurs blessés. Un mémorandum sur les irrégularités du processus électoral en cours en République démocratique du Congo (RDC) a tout de même pu être déposé à la CENI.

Les manifestants de l’UDPS et de la Dynamique Tshisekedi Président (DTP) étaient bien au rendez-vous ce lundi 4 juillet, devant la Commission électorale. Objectifs : dénoncer les irrégularités qui marquent selon eux l’établissement des listes électorales en vue des prochaines élections présidentielles et législatives de novembre 2011. La manifestation a été dispersée avant midi par la police congolaise à l’aide du gaz lacrymogène. Selon des témoins, des coups de feu ont été tirés, un véhicule brûlé et un premier bilan fait état d’un mort et de plusieurs blessés graves. De nombreux manifestants ont également été arrêtés.

Le secrétaire général de l’UDPS, Jacquemain Shabani, a réussi à pénétrer dans l’enceinte de la CENI pour remettre un mémorandum aux responsables de la Commission électorale. Un mémo qui dénonce les irrégularités relevées dans les opérations d’enregistrement des électeurs, en cours en RDC : délivrance de cartes d’électeurs à des enfants mineurs, sous-estimation de l’électorat dans certaines provinces, absence de certains territoires sur le fichier électoral, manque de cartes d’électeur, non-paiement des agents de la CENI, éloignement des bureaux d’enrôlement, en particulier dans les provinces « favorables » à l’opposition… Selon l’UDPS, ces irrégularités sont de nature à perturber la bonne tenue élections prévues le 28 novembre 2011.

Pour l’UDPS et la DTP, “ce sit-in sera répété tous les lundis, tant que la CENI ne répondra pas favorablement aux points précis qui lui seront demandés par mémo”.

Christophe Rigaud

RDC: l’ambassadeur des USA optimiste sur l’issue du processus électoral

radiookapi.net/ 2011/07/04

Les Etats-Unis d’Amérique célèbrent, lundi 04 juillet, le deux-cent trente-cinquième anniversaire de son indépendance. Dans son allocution prononcée, vendredi 1er juillet, en marge de cette célébration, l’ambassadeur des USA en RDC, James Entwistle, est revenu sur la signature de la déclaration de l’indépendance des Etats-Unis, en 1776, et a réaffirmé le soutien de son pays au processus démocratique en cours en RDC.

James Entwistle s’est dit optimiste quant à l’issue du processus électoral en cours.

Il a aussi réaffirmé le soutien de son pays à l’éducation civique, la formation des observateurs électoraux ainsi qu’à l’appui logistique à la Monusco pour l’organisation des élections en RDC.

Le calendrier électoral congolais, rendu public le samedi 30 avril, prévoit l’élection du président de la République et des députés nationaux le 28 novembre 2011.

Selon ce même calendrier, la publication des résultats provisoires de la présidentielle interviendrait le 6 décembre et la prestation de serment du nouveau président, le 20 décembre.

Le diplomate américain a affirmé, par ailleurs, que les Américains sont conscients des difficultés qui se présentent pour construire une démocratie forte et durable en RDC.

Il a également rappelé le partenariat qui lie les USA et la RDC:

«Les Etats-Unis fournissent une aide significative à la RDC dans les domaines de la santé, de l’éducation, le maintien de la paix, la sécurité, la bonne gouvernance, les droits de l’homme, l’environnement et la lutte contre les violences sexuelles et le recrutement des enfants dans les groupes armés.»

Selon l’ambassadeur américain, la RDC a fait des progrès depuis son accession à l’indépendance. Il a noté:

«Le pays est en paix avec ses voisins. Il y a des signes de développement économique et l’Etat travaille à asseoir son autorité sur le territoire et à assurer le bien-être à son peuple.»

UGANDA :

FACTBOX-Key political risks to watch in Uganda

Tue Jul 5, 2011 /By Barry Malone and Elias Biryaberema/ Reuters

KAMPALA, July 4 (Reuters) – A plummeting currency, soaring inflation and the threat of public protests casts a continuing shadow over Uganda – a former donor darling now courting foreign investors and preparing to produce oil.

Anti-government protests over high food and fuel prices that plunged the start of President Yoweri Museveni’s fourth term into crisis have fizzled out.

Opposition activists say they are planning more but public appetite for demonstrations seems to have waned. Economic factors could still reignite anger.

Museveni has blamed drought and global oil prices for the leap in consumer prices.

The shilling has been under pressure against the dollar for the past month and hit several all-time lows, with traders expecting its slide to continue in the short term.

A reported row between Museveni and the central bank governor also gave the market jitters.

Uganda, east Africa’s third largest economy, has taken a step closer to becoming a significant oil producer after British oil explorer Tullow Oil agreed to sell stakes in its operations there to France’s Total and China’s CNOOC for $2.9 billion. .

Museveni in May appointed a political rookie finance minister and handed another relative unknown the energy portfolio. They have yet to make any real impact, but oil investors are watching to see how much power they will wield.

PLUNGING SHILLING, PROTEST WATCH

The shilling started to slide in mid-June after central bank governor Emmanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile was quoted in Britain’s Financial Times saying he had disagreed with Museveni digging into the country’s foreign reserves to buy several Russian fighter jets.

Unprecedented demand for the greenback and tight supply, a weakening shilling in neighbouring Kenya — the region’s biggest economy — and speculative trading, then drove it lower, putting pressure on the country’s importers.

Inflation was checked for the first time in seven months, when the headline rate declined to 15.8 percent from 16.0 percent in May.

Opposition leaders are watching the rates and the prices of food and fuel closely, weighing whether a new bout of protests would be likely to garner support.

There has been no significant unrest since May, with protest leader Kizza Besigye confined to his house by police on a number of protest days and deciding not to protest on others, though he insists he will again.

What to watch:

— Can the shilling’s slide be reversed?

— Besigye. Does he have the stomach to again take on troops who have displayed unwavering loyalty to Museveni?

OIL ROWS SIMMER, CORRUPTION CASES

In Uganda’s oil sector, Tullow’s sale of a one third interest in fields around Lake Albert to each of Total and CNOOC has paved the way for a $10 billion project to develop the reserves.

Meanwhile, Heritage Oil started arbitration proceedings against the Ugandan government to seek the release of $405 million held in relation to the sale of its Ugandan assets to Tullow.

New finance minister, Maria Kiwanuka, sacked a former vice president who was heading up a state body on corruption allegations, perhaps signalling an intent to tackle graft. Irene Muloni, the new energy minister, has yet to make much impact.

Analysts said their appointments were intended to reassure investors worried about what is perceived as an entrenched culture of corruption in the country. Critics fear they will be walk-overs.

Another former vice president, Gilbert Bukenya, is facing corruption charges in one of the most high-profile cases Uganda has ever seen, though critics say Museveni is trying to neutralise him as a rival.

Bukenya, who was sacked by Museveni in a May cabinet reshuffle, was charged with two counts of abuse of office in the anti-graft court.

He was freed on a $20,000 bail and ordered to surrender his passport. He has appealed to the country’s constitutional court.

What to watch:

— How the row between Heritage and Uganda plays out. Analysts said a similar dispute between the government and Tullow had risked hurting Uganda’s reputation.

— More accusations of corruption or attempts to root it out.

SECURITY THREAT

Somalia’s al Shabaab Islamist rebels have threatened more attacks along the lines of the twin suicide-bomb blasts in Kampala in July last year, which killed 79 people.

The insurgents have vowed to target Uganda and nearby Burundi until they withdraw their peacekeeping troops from Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu. The troops are all that stop insurgents from toppling the weak Somali government, many experts say.

Museveni brokered a deal this month to extend the mandate of a transitional government for a year rather than hold elections. The deal was agreed by Somalia’s two most powerful politicians — the President and the speaker of parliament — but squeeze out a prime minister popular with the people.

What to watch:

— More attacks could deter foreign investment inflows, send the shilling south, disrupt the business tempo, hurt tourism and knock the economy.

— Will al Shabaab resent what it sees as Museveni’s continued interference? (Editing by Richard Lough) (For more Reuters Africa coverage and to have your say on the top issues, visit:af.reuters.com)

How much do Ugandans know about EAC?

Posted Tuesday, July 5 2011 / www.monitor.co.ug

The East African Community (EAC), a regional body comprising Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi, covers an area of 1.8million square kilometres with a population of over 120 million people who share a common history, language culture and infrastructure thus providing the partner states with a unique framework for regional cooperation and integration. The GDP of the EAC members is close to $41 billion which is a good market area.

The treaty for EAC was signed in 1999 and ratified on July 7, 2000. The EAC stands on four pillars: The common market, the customs union, monetary union and political federation. To attain all of these four pillars, a timeline was drawn and so far, two of the four pillars have been realised and signed and these are the common market and customs union protocols. We now await the signing of the protocol on monetary union and subsequently, we shall achieve economic integration and political federation.

Now that everything seems to be moving on schedule, I have been asking myself as an ordinary Ugandan deep down in Kisoro or even in Kampala: as citizens, do we know why we are going this way; do we know what EAC is in the first place? It is evident that most ordinary people don’t know what exactly East Africa Community is about; some may have heard about it but are not aware of the benefits of a free market area and free movement of labour and persons within East Africa. For instance, the customs union commenced operation in 2005 but the common man is largely clueless.

In Europe, for instance, before the European Union was effected, there was massive sensitiaation of the masses and the citizens actively participated in the formation of the union. In fact, every protocol that was signed, individual member countries would go down to the masses and ask them if they accept the protocols by organising referenda. In some countries, citizens like in the UK, refused to sign the protocol on monetary union and to date, they use their pound sterling instead of the Euro.

Therefore, it is now a responsibility of our leaders to sensitise the electorate about the EAC and the upcoming protocols yet to be signed, especially the protocol on monetary union because this is a very sensitive issue which requires citizens of the partner states to have an input.

Importantly, the EAC partner states have, in the common market protocol, guaranteed the free movement of citizens within East Africa. Thus citizens of any of the five partner states can move to work or reside in the different EAC as per the provisions of the protocol. Question is, have we utilised this opportunity yet? Our leaders and the secretariat at Arusha, Tanzania, should mobilise resources and sensitise their citizens about all available opportunities and ensure that integration itself comes as a demand from the people rather than imposing policies that the people have not participated in making.

Mr Namara is the national chairman, NRM Youth League

namara.dennis@yahoo.com

Uganda: Besigye Has Hit the Right Chord

5 July 2011/The Monitor

editorial

Dr Kizza Besigye, the leader of the Forum for Democratic Change, has announced that he will respect the party’s constitution and bow out after his second term expires in 2014.

A colossus on the political scene for the last decade, Dr Besigye also told members of his party that he will not be available as the presidential flag bearer in 2016. In brief, Dr Kizza Besigye is planning his political retirement.

At age 54 and with his party barely a decade old, some in the FDC tried to argue against his exit, saying Dr Besigye is still their best political bet and he should hang around. Dr Besigye has resisted that call.

And we are convinced he did the right thing. The biggest mistake leaders can make is to subjugate institutions, especially the political ones, to a single individual’s existence. The concept of succession and its planning is key if institutions are to grow and thrive.

The other credit for Dr Besigye is the fact that he has stuck to the rules–and rather than give in to what largely are opportunistic calls to change the party constitution, he thinks the party can find an alternative.

For a man who had made criticism of President Museveni’s amendment of the Constitution in 2005 to remove term limits his cornerstone, it is just proper that he has not been sucked in to the temptation. And like we have been steadfast in criticising MPs for that decision in 2005, we think Dr Besigye is right to let the rules stay as they are–at least for a while.

Retirement should never be viewed as a period of inactivity or a season of condemnation. It would be a great scene if we saw our senior citizens, most struggling against the tide of time, technology and reforms, take a break from the activities of the day and opt to serve as granaries of knowledge and experience.

In retirement, Dr Besigye, we are sure can continue to be of relevance to the political growth of this country. He surely has been a key player and there are lessons to take from him. But like he has said, they don’t have to be tied to a position. We wish him a smooth transition into retirement.

Meeting to avert traders’ strike ends in stalemate

By John Njoroge /www.monitor.co.ug/Posted Tuesday, July 5 2011

Kampala

A meeting between Kampala traders and government officials called to discuss an impending strike by the former ended inconclusively yesterday. The meeting was intended to find a solution to the unprecedented slow-down in business brought on by double digit inflation, high fuel prices and a severe depreciation of the Uganda Shilling against the dollar.

After five hours of discussion, both sides could only resolve to meet again today.

Kacita chairperson Everest Kayondo told Daily Monitor that nothing concrete was agreed upon. “We have resolved to continue with the two-day strike on Wednesday and Thursday. They did not have answers for our concerns.”

Kampala traders say they have been forced by the prevailing hostile economic conditions to stage a two-day sit-down strike over what they say is government’s reluctance to respond to the rising cost of foreign currencies used in import trade. Yesterday’s meeting was aimed at, among other things, convincing the traders to abandon the planned strike as government says it is looking for answers to their long-standing grievances.

Govt mute

Late last week, the government failed to deliver a scheduled explanation in Parliament on the state of the economy and the effect of the falling Shilling. Mr Jacan Omach, the minister in charge of general duties at the finance ministry, on Thursday told this newspaper that they were not ready but that they would brief MPs today, Tuesday.

The central bank has twice intervened to save the rapidly falling Shilling by injecting millions of dollars in the foreign exchange market over the past fortnight. But the average rate of Shs2,500 per dollar continues to be a source of concern for businesses which have already been hit hard by the effect of the high cost of fuel with petrol selling about Shs2,600 a litre.

With its members feeling the effects of the highest inflation in a decade at 16 per cent, Kacita had hoped to emerge from yesterday’s meeting with firm assurances from the government on possible interventions. Nothing came of it though. “They asked us to call the traders for a meeting but when we contacted most of our members they refused,” Kacita’s spokesperson Issa Sekito said.

Economic Monitoring State Minister Henry Banyezaki, who was part of the government team, however, said dialogue would continue with the traders. He expressed optimism that a solution would be reached in a week’s time. “We appreciate their concerns and found them very genuine,” Mr Banyenzaki said, adding that government was working hard to ensure that the situation is normalised. He did not comment on whether the central bank can continue intervening in the foreign exchange market given the fact that when the government bought Russian Sukhoi fighter jets valued at $740 million, it reduced foreign reserves from the recommended six months worth of import cover to four months.

The Uganda Shilling has witnessed a significant drop in value against foreign currencies, most prominently the US dollar. Bank of Uganda says the situation is being mainly inflamed by speculation and high corporate demand which have, together, led to larger than manageable outflows. This situation is pushing traders against the wall as they increasingly find it difficult to sell goods bought with very expensive foreign currency.

19 missing as boat capsizes on Uganda’s Lake Albert

(AFP) /05072011

KAMPALA — At least 19 people were reported missing after their boat capsized on the Ugandan side of Lake Albert, police said Tuesday.

The small boat set off on Sunday from the Hoima region on the shores of the lake which straddles Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo and police said there was little chance of finding survivors.

“It is most unlikely that there are any survivors by now because the boat capsized on Sunday and we are yet to get the wreckage,” said Charles Oringa, a police officer.

The accident occurred two weeks after eight people drowned on the same lake when their boat hit a large wave and sank.

Last August, an overloaded boat capsized on Lake Albert and killed at least 33 people.

Accidents often cause a high number of fatalities because many boats have no life jackets and a large percentage of the population cannot swim.

SOUTH AFRICA:

South Africa: Russia Mull Peaceful Solution to Libyan Crisis

5 July 2011/ BuaNews (Tshwane)

Sochi — President Jacob Zuma and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Monday exchanged views on a possible peaceful solution to the Libyan crisis.

Zuma, also the spokesman for the African Union (AU) High Level Ad Hoc Committee on Libya, said he wanted to share the AU’s thinking and plans on Libya with Russia and NATO.

The President expressed concerns over the NATO operation in Libya, saying he could share “the AU’s view about what the international community could do, and also NATO in particular.”

Prior to their brief meeting at Russia’s Black Sea resort of Sochi, Medvedev said he would like to discuss with Zuma the “peaceful settlement” to the Libyan conflict.

He also said he would like NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen and other NATO delegates to “hear both from me and from you (Zuma) … our opinion about what is happening in Libya and how peace could be achieved.”

Medvedev met with Zuma before they held trilateral talks with Rasmussen.

According to Russian press reports, Zuma presented the AU’s peace plan for Libya at the trilateral meeting, and a NATO official has said the alliance would study the plan.

Moscow has been critical of the NATO-led military operations in Libya, saying it would only support the peacemaking efforts of the AU and UN.

South African Stocks: EOH Holdings, Exxaro Resources, Massmart

By Lauren van der Westhuizen/ www.bloomberg.com/ – Jul 5, 2011

The FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index rose for an eighth day, climbing 129.31, or 0.4 percent, to 32,207.10 by 12:38 p.m. in Johannesburg.

The following are among the most active stocks in the South African market today.

EOH Holdings Ltd. (EOH) , a South African information technology company, climbed to the highest on record after saying it will buy TSS Managed Services (Pty) Ltd. for 130.5 million rand ($19.4 million). The stock advanced 1.20 rand, or 6.2 percent, to 20.60 rand, the strongest intraday level since at least August 1998, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Exxaro Resources Ltd. (EXX) , the biggest seller of coal to South African power utility Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd., snapped two days of decreases, gaining 2.17 rand, or 1.2 percent, to 177.17 rand. Exxaro’s takeover bid for Territory Resources Ltd. has lapsed after the minimum acceptance wasn’t met.

Massmart Holdings Ltd. (MSM) , the South African retailer controlled by Wal-Mart Stores Inc., climbed for an eighth day, adding 1.14 rand, or 0.8 percent, to 143.64 rand. Massmart said it will release a sales update for the fiscal year through June during the “latter part of this week.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Lauren van der Westhuizen in Cape Town at lvanderwesth@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Reed Landberg at landberg@bloomberg.net

South African Business Confidence Gains as Low Rates Help to Spur Spending

By Franz Wild – /www.bloomberg.com/ Jul 5, 2011

…South African business confidence gained in June as increased consumer spending bolstered the recovery in Africa’s largest economy, the country’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry said.

The Business Confidence Index advanced to 86.8 from 85.8 in May, the Johannesburg-based chamber, known as SACCI, said today in an e-mailed statement. The index is compiled from 13 economic indicators, including retail sales, inflation and financial gauges, such as the stock index and the currency.

“The recovery in real household expenditure in durable goods, such as motor vehicles, was robust as lower interest rates were easing the burden of indebted consumers,” the chamber said. The central bank has kept its benchmark interest rate at a 30-year low of 5.5 percent this year.

South African consumer spending, which accounts for two- thirds of demand in the economy, rose in the first quarter as real disposable income grew, the Reserve Bank said on June 21. Retail sales rose as its fastest pace in almost four years in April, increasing 9.8 percent from a year earlier, Statistics South Africa said on June 15.

With mixed signs in the economy, current consumption patterns are “dubious and may contribute to a false sense of improved business confidence,” the chamber said. The driving force behind the current performance is fragile, it said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Franz Wild in Johannesburg at fwild@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew J. Barden at barden@bloomberg.net

Pay up or face long winter, Vavi warns

5 juil. 2011 / Mfundekelwa Mkhulisi and Bakae Maesela / www.sowetanlive.co.za

COSATU general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi has told employers that they must pay workers decent wages or face “the mother of all battles”.

Vavi warned that if employers thought the National Union of Metal Workers of South Africa (Numsa) strike that started yesterday was going to be a three-day affair, they were making a big mistake.

“Settle now. Thirteen percent is within your affordability or else you will face the longest cold winter,” Vavi said addressing scores of Numsa members in Newtown, Johannesburg.

The workers are demanding a 13percent wage increase, while the employer is offering 7percent. They are also demanding medical aid assistance, 20percent night shift allowance and a minimum of 20 days paid time off for shop stewards.

Vavi also called on the government to pass a law to outlaw the use of labour brokering.

“These people (labour brokers) are nothing else but worker traffickers. We say to hell with labour brokers. We want Parliament to deal with them this year and not next year.”

Vavi said 33percent of workers were casual workers because labour brokering took away people’s jobs.

The workers marched to the offices of the Steel and Engineering Industries Federation of South Africa in Johannesburg to hand over a memorandum.

Numsa general secretary Irvin Jim said workers walk every morning in the cold weather to sell their labour for a pittance that did not improve their lives.

“In South Africa today, we don’t need big English words (to deal with issues affecting workers). All we need is decisive leadership. Jacob Zuma must do everything in his power to help you because it is you workers who are ANC,” Jim said.

Steel and engineering workers downed tools across the country yesterday. Jim said workers marched in only four provinces because they were refused permission elsewhere.

He said: “There is no justification that for the past four years we had stability in this sector but when we negotiate salaries we are told there is no money.”

Numsa gave employers three days to respond.

Xenophobia: LHR hails MP’s apology

July 5 2011 /By POLITICAL BUREAU / Pretoria News /www.iol.co.za

Lawyers for Human Rights (LHR) has welcomed ANC MP Maggie Maunye’s apology for remarks she made about foreigners in Parliament last week.

The organisation had called on Maunye to retract her statements publicly and assist in finding solutions “so that everyone within South Africa’s borders can enjoy their rights under the law”.

Maunye, who chairs the parliamentary oversight committee on home affairs, implied at a meeting of the committee on Wednesday that foreigners who settled here were soaking up resources. She questioned the use of human rights laws and the constitution to accommodate foreigners and suggested that they should be turned away, as migrants were by Spain.

“Really, this intake, for how long are we going to continue with this as South Africans? Is it not going to affect our resources, the economy of the country?” she said. “We’ve never enjoyed our freedom as South Africans. We got it in 1994 and we had floods and floods of refugees or undocumented people in the country and we always want to pretend it’s nothing like that.”

On Sunday, the ANC chief whip’s office said Maunye had “carefully reflected” on the comments, which might have been construed to be xenophobic, and had recognised “that her views, although not so intended, may have run counter to the letter and spirit of ANC policies”.

She realised her remarks might have been insensitive to the plight of many African foreigners who were here legitimately or because of hardships in their countries.

“Comrade Maunye deeply regrets the comments and unconditionally apologises for the harm they may have caused,” the statement read.

This was only after Lawyers for Human Rights said on Friday it was unacceptable that the chairwoman of the portfolio committee monitoring implementation of international human rights obligations could take such an uninformed and blatantly xenophobic view of contributions made by foreigners in building a modern South Africa.

“This is particularly discouraging considering these comments were made by a senior member of Parliament whose duty it is to uphold the law,” the group said in its statement.

“These unfortunate comments have come at a time of increased tension across Gauteng and memories of the 2008 violence where foreign nationals were targeted for violence and destruction of their property.”

The group said Maunye would do better to scrutinise mismanagement of the Department of Home Affairs’ asylum management directorate during the 11 years that the Refugees Act had been in place.

On Monday, the group said it was happy with the apology.

“It was very serious for a portfolio committee chair to make such xenophobic comments,” spokeswoman Kaajal Ramjathan-Keogh said. –

Gold Fields expects 5% Q2 production increase

By: Mariaan Webb/ www.miningweekly.com/5th July 2011

JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) − Gold Fields, which operates mines in South Africa, Ghana, Peru and Australia, expects to report a 5% quarter-on-quarter production increase when it publishes its second-quarter and interim results next month.

Attributable gold production for the June quarter would be about 872 000 gold-equivalent ounces, which is 5% higher than the first-quarter output of 830 000 oz, the gold miner stated on Tuesday.

Gold Fields is targeting full-year production of between 3.5-million and 3.7-million ounces.

Second-quarter production was impacted by six public holidays in South Africa, as well as two seismic-related accidents at the Kloof, Driefontein complex, which resulted in production stoppages. In Australasia, a week-long, unplanned mill outage at St Ives impacted on production.

“Remedial actions in respect of the seismic-related accidents and the unplanned mill outage were satisfactorily completed during the latter part of the second quarter,” Gold Fields, led by CEO Nick Holland, stated.

Cash costs are expected to be about $815/oz, or R175 000/kg.

Gold Fields, which has a primary listing in Johannesburg, would publish its June quarter and interim results on August 11. Shares traded at R98.25 apiece on the JSE at around 11:00.

Edited by: Mariaan Webb

TANZANIA:

Africans try to enforce taxes for multinationals

by Associated Press / Jul 5, 2011

JOHANNESBURG (AP) — Tax authorities in three African countries are now working together to prevent multinational companies from avoiding taxes and depriving their countries of money that could be used to fight poverty.

The African Tax Administration Forum said this week that South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia plan to exchange information about taxpayers. The effort, spurred by an international aid group’s research, is aimed at monitoring whether corporations are paying enough tax.

Companies who find ways to use tax laws to pay as little as possible are “likely to get away with it more” in developing countries that often lack the resources to audit and investigate, according to Logan Wort, executive secretary of the African Tax Administration.

Aid groups and governments are expressing growing concern about whether poor countries in Africa are getting a fair share of taxes from the rich companies that operate there. David McNair, a tax researcher for Christian Aid, said the steps being taken by South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia are proof years of lobbying is having an effect.

“The growing profile of the role of tax in development … has given developing countries confidence,” McNair said. “It’s really encouraging to see African countries standing up together.”

Even South Africa — which has the most sophisticated tax system on the continent — says it’s losing billions of rand (dollars) in possible taxes.

South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan was quoted by the government news agency recently as saying his country was missing out on uncollected taxes because companies’ tax planners were so far ahead of government tax administrators.

Activists point to multinational beer company SABMiller as one example of how accounting sleight of hand can reduce a tax burden in African countries.

While SABMiller isn’t breaking any laws, the group ActionAid issued a report last year questioning the ethics of depriving “governments of significant amounts of tax — enough money to educate a quarter of a million African children.”

ActionAid says one common method involves determining prices for payments made by a multinational’s subsidiary in a developing country for goods or services provided by a sister company based elsewhere. Tax authorities would ideally like to see the payments be based on market prices, but that can be difficult to confirm or enforce. The result can be reducing or eliminating a subsidiary’s taxable profits.

London-based SABMiller — the world’s second-biggest brewer, with subsidiaries across Africa — says it adheres to international standards on what is known as transfer pricing, and follows regulations in the countries in which it operates.

“SABMiller does not engage in aggressive tax planning in any part of its operations,” the company said in a statement that dismissed the ActionAid report as based on “flawed and inaccurate assumptions.”

The ActionAid report prompted tax experts from South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia to turn to the African Tax Administration Forum to organize talks last week, Wort said.

At the meeting, officials from the three countries agreed to work toward establishing a tax information exchange agreement that would give them legal authority to discuss specific taxpayers, and allow them to exchange information about what any particular company is claiming is its obligation in any country.

The participants also decided that if they should decide to audit a company, they would turn to the African Tax Administration Forum to arrange expert help, possibly from Western governments.

Still, experts note that investments by multinational countries have allowed African economies to grow, and that they should not see themselves as targets of a tax witch hunt.

“In no way do we wish to send the message that multinationals are bad,” Wort said. “We welcome them.”

The new initiative involves just three African countries but experts expect the effort to grow — pushing companies to change their practices.

“The issue here is multinational tax avoidance,” said Martin Hearson, a tax expert who wrote the ActionAid report criticizing SABMiller. “And it needs a multinational approach.”

KENYA:

Obama warning to Kenya on Gaddafi

By David Ochami/www.standardmedia.co.ke/Tuesday, 5th July 2011

US President Barack Obama is warning Kenya not to give besieged Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi access to money generated by Libya’s investments in the country.

Obama wants Kenya to freeze all of Gaddafi’s assets and those of the Central Bank of Libya, as directed by the United Nations Security Council Resolutions 1970 and 1973.

The US Embassy in Nairobi has also asked the Government to remove the diplomatic status of Libyan diplomats loyal to Gaddafi, and instead help the Transitional National Council opposing the former strongman to “open a representative office in Kenya”.

The UN resolution was itself inspired by fear that money generated from Gaddafi’s assets in Kenya could be siphoned to the embattled leader in Libya to buttress his onslaught on civilians and ward off armed resistance to his rule, as well as pay for scaremongering tactics against Western forces that have been bombarding his weakened regime for weeks now.

The assets believed to be targeted are the multi-million former Grand Regency Hotel, which Kenya controversially sold to Libya and was immediately renamed Laico Regency Hotel, and OilLibya, one of Kenya’s leading oil marketing chains bought from Mobil in 2007.

The Libyan embassy in Nairobi, which the US also wants shut, is facing financial collapse amid reports of defections by some of its staff to the rebel Transitional National Council.

A top diplomat at the mission on Monday told The Standard two diplomats left on Friday, and are believed to be in the rebel stronghold in Benghazi.

Private investors

The UN is targeting Libya’s assets estimated to be worth over US$70 billion (Sh6 trillion) in Africa.

However, it has been complicated for African states to tell which investments

belong to the State of Libya, those it holds in trust for its nationals, and those owned by Libya’s private investors.

The eccentric Gaddafi, one of Africa’s longest serving rulers, has been under pressure to quit since February when armed groups started fighting his government from the eastern port city of Benghazi.

Aware of the Gaddafi government’s heavy investment in Kenya, President Obama’s administration, and other members of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato), is out to ensure he is starved of cash from his foreign businesses.

Among the assets in Kenya being monitored by the Americans, include investments made by Libya in the oil and hospitality sector.

Freezing and seizure

In the letter, copies of which The Standard has obtained, the US Government warned Kenya not to allow Gaddafi to use Kenyan financial institutions to circumvent UN sanctions and move assets out of Libya.

America also asked the Kibaki administration to ensure Kenya’s financial sector was not used to evade UN, US and European sanctions on Libya.

Washington called on Kenya to share information on Libyan assets locally, including those that could fall within the classification of entities targeted for freezing and seizure in accordance with UN Security Council Resolutions 1970 and 1973.

The latest demands from the US government came as the civil war in Libyan entered its fifth month this week.

The letter sent by the American embassy ran:

“The United States requests that Kenya engage the financial sector in its jurisdiction to identify and prevent the movement of Libyan assets in circumvention of UN, US or EU sanctions.”

The war in Libya began on February 15, when protestors engaged in peaceful protests that the Gaddafi regime countered with force.

Armed groups then emerged in Eastern Libya, with the support of Nato troops, and forces opposing Gaddafi established a government in Benghazi named the Transitional National Council, whose goal is to overthrow the Gaddafi’s regime and hold democratic elections.

Washington also asked Kenya to “share any information it may possess” on assets identified for seizure in Kenya under the UN, US, and EU sanctions, and provide a report on other Libyan assets in Kenya.

The Libyan embassy official, which cannot be named for security reasons, disclosed the mission would send most of its diplomats to Libya “at the end of this month (July) because of financial problems.”

Two accounts

The diplomat revealed: “They are all going back to Tripoli. We have received no money (from Tripoli) since February.”

The diplomat also disclosed managers of Libyan investments in the country have been told to bank their returns with indigenous Kenyan banks to avoid a freezing of their accounts following a brief seizure of two accounts of the embassy in April.

The freeze and unfreezing by the Kenya Commercial Bank followed an internal memo by Central Bank Governor Prof Njuguna Ndung’u.

Diplomatic sources within the embassy told The Standard two other diplomats from the mission might have made contacts with US or other Western diplomats in Nairobi to plot defection.

In the diplomatic cable sent by the US embassy in Nairobi to Kenya’s Foreign Affairs Ministry on April 20, the Americans asked the Kibaki regime to “take all measures necessary to implement” the two UN Security Council resolutions and warned Washington had information that “the Central Bank of Libya may be planning to use African banks to move assets out of Libya.”

The cable which Kenyan authorities ignored until a second one was sent on June 6, also urged the Government to investigate if Gaddafi was using any financial institution to circumvent sanctions.

The cable urged Kenya to shut the Libyan mission and recognise rebels but, was ignored.

The April 20 cable ran: “The United States urges Kenya to ensure that financial institutions are subjecting Libya related transactions to appropriate scrutiny to identify and freeze assets of Gaddafi, the Central Bank of Libya and other individuals and entities subject to UN assets freezes.”

Kenya: Dream of NSE Riches Turns Into Nightmare

Jevans Nyabiage/Daily Nation On The Web/4 July 2011

Nairobi — Five years ago, at the height of Kenya’s stock market boom, an army of over two million new investors, retail and institutional, descended on the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE).

There was confidence with all the indicators of a market on a roll. This was manifested in a price rally with all companies that listed during the period – ScanGroup, Equity Bank, KenGen, Eveready, AccessKenya and Safaricom – being oversubscribed by huge margins.

With the sky-high hopes of owning a piece of the blue-chip companies, although some of them may not be necessarily holding the same status in the public eye, many investors generously poured their money into the bourse.

The KenGen initial public offering (IPO) in 2006, for instance, opened the floodgate of retail investors to the NSE with their numbers hitting the then historical record of half a million from less 100,000 before the issue.

The firm’s share price jumped to Sh49 from the listing value of Sh11.50 on the first day of trading, generating a massive interest in the stock market that literally pulled small un-sophisticated investors to the trading floor, and made IPO common talk in villages.

Following a series of collapses of a number of stock brokers, however, investor confidence, especially at the retail level, was badly battered.

Since then, things have not been the same and, if anything, a number of stocks are heading south as jittery investors bale out.

“That supreme conviction, which brought two million new shareholders to the market was a valuable thing.

But the conviction was impaired for a variety of reasons, many of which have now been reversed,” said Mr Aly Khan Satchu, an investment analyst based in Nairobi.

“Uchumi (Supermarket) is the most symbolic example of that – it was in ICU for more than five years.”

A combination of factors, unethical behaviour, fraud, theft and mismanagement, have unleashed untold suffering particularly on the small investors who had entrusted their investments to these firms.

Consequently, in the past three years, there has been an exodus of retail investors. Data from the Capital Markets Authority (CMA), the regulator, shows that small investors cut back their investments in equities from a peak of 27 per cent of the market capitalisation in 2007 to 14 per cent, or Sh152 billion, last year.

The exit, market analysts say, is the direct result of eroded confidence that came with the collapse of four stockbrokers, a bear run that has persisted since 2007 and a movement to alternative investments such as real estate where prices have been on the rise.

“The outlook for the year is not very promising due to underlying factors, with rising inflation, depreciating shilling, volatile interest rates and political uncertainty,” said Mr Einstein Kihanda, the chief investment officer at ICEA Asset Management.

With a number of stocks trading below their IPO prices, analysts reckon this year the stock market graph will be trending downwards and most counters will close the year in the red.

“The NSE 20-share index has retreated about 10.6 per cent in 2011 and when you factor in the currency depreciation, then it is a 20 per cent downdraft,” says Mr Satchu of Rich Management.

Kenya National Bureau of Statistics latest data show that the country’s year-on-year inflation rate increased for the eighth straight month in June to 14.49 per cent from 12.95 per cent in May, driven by higher food and fuel prices.

An analysis by African Alliance Kenya Securities raises the red flag too, saying year-to-date the local stock market performance went down 21.9 per cent compared to North African countries, which have faced uprisings.

“We believe equities in Kenya will continue to under-perform generally for the rest of the year especially for foreign investors who will take a hit on the exchange rate,” said Mr Eric Musau, an analyst at African Alliance Kenya Securities. “We do not expect the currency to strengthen in the short-term.”

Fund managers say as stock prices continue to fall, many investors are shifting to the fixed income market in a bid to lock in yields in a rising interest rate environment. Analysts warn that this is likely to continue as long as volatility in the market prevails.

“It has not been a good year compared to last year. Share prices have been on the decline,” says Mr Isaac Njuguna, head of investments at Zimele Asset Management.

“For sure it is not going to be a good year as share prices point down. Many investors are uncertain of when the market will rebound,” he added, “With 2012 being an election year, it will cloud prospects more.”

Mr Satchu has a different take, however: “All things being equal, and if the political risk remains in its box, I see the NSE-20 Share Index rallying about 10-15 per cent from these levels. On a Price Earnings Basis the Bourse looks good value.”

Prior to the financial crisis, many investors were not as captivated by vehicles such as Treasuries, government bonds and agency securities.

They were perceived as boring and had seemingly become out of date. However, currently interest in many of these staid fixed-income schemes have rebounded among investors and managers alike, and riskier investing has dropped off.

Mr Njuguna says the sweet-deal now seems to lie in short-term bonds of less than two years and government securities such as the 91-day Treasury bill since there is uncertainty as to which direction inflation and interest rates will go, making it safer not to commit funds for too long.

In the past few months, data from the Central Bank of Kenya show that demand for Treasury bills has been on the increase.

The bank’s weekly bulletin shows that the government offered for sale Treasury bills and Treasury bonds in last week’s auctions to raise a total of Sh20 billion.

During the 91-day treasury bills auction of June 23, 2011 the government offered Sh2 billion which attracted bids amounting to Sh11.5 billion, a 574.0 per cent performance.

Bids amounting to Sh5.8 billion were accepted. In another auction held on June 22, the government offered for sale two-year, five-year and 20-year Treasury bonds to raise Sh18 billion.

The auction attracted bids amounting to Sh19.0 billion, a 105.0 percent performance. The government accepted bids amounting to Sh9.0 billion of which Sh6.7 billion were in two-year treasury bonds.

The average yield for the 91-day Treasury bill was 2.18 per cent in November last year but the latest rate is 8.995 per cent making it an attractive bet.

Even those companies paying the highest dividends, the yields are not able to offer a higher return than the 12.95 rate of inflation.

A weakening shilling and investor caution as the 2012 elections expected to take place in August 2012 approaches make fixed deposits and government securities more attractive.

“There are growing indications that the secondary bond market will perform just as well as 2010 this year, with Sh109 billion already traded during the first quarter of 2011, representing 23 per cent of the total bond turnover for the previous year,” says the CMA in its Monthly Bulletin.

“Kenyans in post-KenGen issue fell in love with the bond market and it was largely a one way bet until this year. Bonds were in a sweet spot as inflation crashed to a cycle low of 3.1 per cent last year,” Mr Satchu says.

However, the bond market is a cruel and fickle mistress, as investors have found this year. Inflation was last at 14.5 per cent and the bond market has fallen out of bed. Investors are nursing some brutal and violent losses.

Another area that continues to attract capital, Mr Satchu says, is property. “I see it as in a solid medium term uptrend with low beta,” he say. “Kenyans are like the British – they have a supreme faith in bricks and mortar and with good reason.”

He says an optimised low beta portfolio needs to hold property and shares – which are trading on a low PE (price-earnings) basis.

And as long as interest rates for Treasury bills and bonds remains high compared to returns from the stock market, the bear run will continue to erode investor confidence at the stock market.

Since January the Nairobi Stock Exchange Index has lost 524.81 points to 3969.03 points as at the end of last week from 4,495.41.

Central Bank’s weekly bulletin showed that the performance at the equities market declined during the week ending June 23, 2011.

The NSE 20 share index lost 21.7 points to settle at 3,970.6 from 3,992.3 points on June 16, 2011.

Equity turnover shed 34.2 per cent while the number of shares transacted decreased by 59.4 million during the period under review.

New listings coming up

Market capitalisation as a measure of total shareholders’ wealth decreased to Sh1.115 trillion from the previous week’s Sh1.122 trillion.

Likewise, the Nairobi All Share Index dropped to 90.85 from 91.45 points.

Although analysts point to reduced activity for the remaining part of this year, new listings of British American and Trans-Century will likely jolt the market.

“Not sure if British American IPO will trigger market recovery due to underlying fundamentals. Investors are likely to view the IPO on its own merits,” said Mr Kihanda.

“It is all about pricing and I think Britak have erred on the side of caution on that front and therefore whilst it might not ignite the market it will stir it.”

Kenya: Why Central Bank Should Save the Shilling From Falling Further

Marubu Munyaka/ Daily Nation On The Web/4 July 2011

opinion

Nairobi — The Kenya shilling depreciated to Sh90 to the US dollar on Friday from the previous level of Sh81 in February, this year, a decline of over 11 per cent in just four months.

Central Bank of Kenya’s decision not to intervene in the foreign exchange market is ill-advised irrespective of the causes of the depreciation.

It is unfair to importers of raw materials, industrial goods that we require for industrialisation and it will exacerbate inflation, which is already on the rise.

The cost of fuel will go up further, causing more suffering to the already stuttering economy. Workers will demand more salary increments.

This position is contrary to the government’s stated policy of price stability.

It is also contrary to the Protocol on the Establishment of the East African Community (EAC) Common Market, which came in to force in July 2010.

Stable exchange rates attract foreign investors to capital markets on the assurance of fair prediction of future returns.

At this rate, it implies that any investors would foresee huge losses at the point of conversion of their return into their currency abroad.

This will deal a deathblow to the Nairobi Stock Exchange unless the shilling is tamed. One of the major causes of foreign exchange movement is inflation.

The depreciation of the shilling against international currencies has in turn triggered speculation in the currency by dealers, which is a natural phenomenon.

We are headed for general elections in 2012 and it is possible that short-term investors are gradually withdrawing their investments from the country.

This has been seen in South East Asia, Latin America and Iceland and was witnessed in Kenya in the 1980s and 90s.

In simple terms, the depreciation of the shilling against international currencies is eroding the purchasing power of Kenyans.

This is why world over central banks intervene in the foreign exchange market to restore market confidence.

CBK has failed in monetary policy because central banks influence money supply using such instruments as open market operations, discount rate changes (like it raised to 8 per cent on Wednesday) and adjustments to commercial banks’ reserve requirements.

There is no proper explanation as to why CBK is not pumping dollars into the foreign exchange market even as it takes corrective measures against speculators.

As a regulator, CBK ought to set the band of fluctuation of the shilling against the international currencies.

At EAC level, a coordinated harmonised monetary policy will create a zone of monetary stability, which will be free as possible of violent currency fluctuations.

The fact that exchange rates are allowed to float does not mean that central banks and the ministries of finance have lost interest in exchange rates.

For instance, policy moves are influenced by exchange rates movements, while policies designed to influence these rates are undertaken regularly to keep currencies within desired limits.

These activities are reminiscent of those undertaken to support the fixed rates under the Bretton Woods System.

The difference is that the target ranges for the exchange rates are less well defined and that the coordinated efforts are undertaken somewhat informally without an umbrella agreement.

CBK should work to save the shilling from further weakening.

The writer is an independent financial consultant.

Kenya Horticulture Earnings Tumble on Weak Demand, Reuters Says

By Mkhululi Mancotywa / www.bloomberg.com/ Jul 5, 2011

Kenya’s horticultural exports tumbled almost 80 percent in the first two months of the year due to weak demand from Europe, Reuters said, citing Jane Ngige, chief executive officer of the Kenya Flower Council.

Shipments fell to 14.5 billion shilling ($163.6 million) from 71.6 billion shillings in the same period last year, the news agency said.

Flower exports account for more than half of the country’s horticulture shipments, the biggest source of foreign exchange in east Africa’s largest economy, ahead of black tea and tourism, Reuters said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mkhululi Mancotywa in Johannesburg at mmancotywa1@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Amanda Jordan at ajordan11@bloomberg.net.

ANGOLA:

FACTBOX-Key political risks to watch in Angola

Tue Jul 5, 2011 / Reuters

LUANDA, July 5 (Reuters) – Questions over the transparency of the government of Angola’s entrenched President Jose Eduardo dos Santos are worrying investors in one of the continent’s largest economies.

Angola’s oil wealth has done little to eradicate its chronic poverty while an overdependence on income from the commodity has delayed plans to develop other sectors that would improve the country’s long-term economic stability.

Tension between dos Santos’ ruling MPLA party and the main opposition UNITA party and questions over policy-making have also raised concerns with investors.

The MPLA, which emerged victorious from a 27-year civil war against UNITA in 2002, has been accused of corruption but signs point to it winning national elections scheduled for next year.

A fall in crude prices below $100 a barrel has put pressure on the government’s finances, even though rating agency Moody’s last month upgraded its outlook for the country, seeing growing signs of stability.

ECONOMIC GROWTH

The central bank says 2011 is going to be a “demanding and intense” year for the economy due to the sluggish recovery in rich countries. The IMF predicts growth this year to be 7.8 percent and 10.5 in 2012.

A Reuters poll of economists in February predicted growth of 7.3 percent for this year, due mainly to higher oil prices and investment.

An IMF delegation to the country said in June it saw a “positive” outlook for the economy for the rest of the year.

Luanda has also said it has received requests from building firms to pay up to $9 billion in late bills, although it says it only owes $6.8 billion to the local and foreign companies.

Last year’s sacking of powerful Economy Minister Manuel Nunes Junior, who oversaw monetary policy, a $1.3 billion IMF loan programme and the creation of a sovereign wealth fund, has also raised questions about the coordination of policy.

His replacement by ex-central bank governor Abraao Gourgel is seen as a setback for reform, although new National Bank of Angola governor Jose de Lima Massano, the ex-head of Angola’s biggest private bank, has been received more favourably.

Stubbornly high inflation also remains a concern with official estimates seeing it averaging 12 percent this year.

Watch out for:

— Conflicting views on the economy from Angolan leaders.

— Criticism of Angola’s economic team.

POLITICAL BICKERING

Campaigning for 2012 elections got off to a shaky start, with UNITA saying food price riots in Mozambique in September could lead poverty-stricken Angolans to do the same.

UNITA leader Isaias Samakuva made these comments after the government raised fuel prices by up to 50 percent.

The polls will only be the second since the end of the civil war that pitted the Russia- and Cuba-backed MPLA against UNITA, backed by the United States and apartheid South Africa.

The MPLA, which won the war in 2002 and 82 percent of the vote in elections two years ago, is almost certain to win the 2012 elections, but it looks increasingly worried about UNITA’s accusations of not doing enough to fight poverty and corruption.

The army and police have so far deterred unhappy Angolans — an estimated two-thirds of whom live on less than $2 a day — from public protests, and people power uprisings in north Africa are likely to have increased the authorities’ vigilance.

Watch out for:

— Protests from taxi drivers forbidden from raising fares.

— Signs of civil unrest in shanty towns around Luanda.

TRANSPARENCY

Dos Santos has been unusually vocal about corruption after his government turned to the IMF for a loan in 2009, and his comments on zero-tolerance for graft prompted parliament to pass a law to punish corrupt officials.

But it is hard to change the rules of the game when the players remain the same.

The decision-making process is opaque, with access to key officials limited. The private media is also seen to be controlled by members of the government. Reliable statistics and market-relevant information are also scarce.

The lack of transparency can lead to unwelcome surprises, such as the ham-fisted announcement of construction arrears.

Looming U.S. rules forcing oil companies to disclose payments to foreign governments could even provoke a legislative backlash in Luanda, shutting down an already thin trickle of information.

Watch out for:

Government delivering on pledges to fight corruption.

Government announcing further surprising debt numbers.

SUCCESSOR

The MPLA’s landslide 2008 victory left rivals in tatters, letting dos Santos change the constitution and boost his powers.

The new charter enables the 68-year-old ruler to remain in power until 2022 although there is speculation he will retire before then.

The big question is whom he will pick as vice president for the race. That person will be seen as the successor to one of Africa’s longest-serving leaders.

Despite criticism for holding power for more than three decades and having huge influence over politics and the economy, dos Santos is widely seen as key to peace and stability.

Vice President Fernando Da Piedade Dias dos Santos is a natural successor but he has health problems and could be outflanked by ministers of state Manuel Vieira Dias or Carlos Feijo.

Watch out for:

— Changes in the government ahead of the 2012 elections

— Any comments from dos Santos about his plans to retire.

OIL DEPENDENCY

Oil has helped Angola pick up the pieces of a devastating civil war to become sub-Saharan Africa’s third-biggest economy after South Africa and Nigeria.

But, as elsewhere, oil dependence can also be a curse.

Despite moves to diversify and invest in sectors such as agriculture, oil still accounts for 90 percent of Angola’s export income but employs less than 1 percent of its people.

The oil price slump in 2008 left it struggling to pay civil servants and forced it to delay paying billions of dollars to construction firms rebuilding after the war.

The IMF, the World Bank and ratings agencies, which have given Angola the same B+ rating as Nigeria, have all urged Angola to do more to diversify its economy.

Should it fail to do so, it risks becoming another Nigeria, where quarrels about the distribution of oil wealth have fuelled civil unrest.

Chinese officials have said Angola’s plans to cut its dependence on oil could see relations between the countries improve further, with China seeing potential in agriculture, service industries, infrastructure and renewable energy.

Watch out for:

— New policies to diversify the economy

— Ability of the government to pay back $6.8 billion in late bills to construction firms. (Editing by Philippa Fletcher) (For more Reuters Africa cover visit: af.reuters.com/ — To comment on this story email:SouthAfrica.Newsroom@reuters.com)

Nampak Bevcan opens beverage can factory in Angola

5 Jul 2011 / www.bizcommunity.com

The official opening of Nampak Bevcan’s US$160 million beverage can factory, Angolata took place late last month. The factory is situated in the Viana Industrial Zone in Angola’s capital, Luanda.

This is Bevcan’s first operation in Angola. The first beverage can production line will have a capacity of 750 million 330ml cans per year, in the future, this can be doubled by the installation of a second production line.

Says Nampak chairman, Tito Mboweni: “Angolata is Nampak’s single biggest Greenfield investment outside of South Africa. We are very excited about extending our footprint in Angola and see the opening of this plant as proof of the growing relationship between our two countries.”

Erik Smuts, Bevcan’s MD, explained that there are significant benefits to producing cans in Angola, including job creation, uplifting of skills and state-of-the-art production processes. Local production will also reduce the number of cans that need to be imported for a growing beverage can market.

Creating jobs for locals

“We are creating 120 direct jobs for locals and are more effectively servicing our customers – namely Cuca BGI (part of the Castel group) and Coca-Cola Bottling Luanda (managed by Castel). Angolata should be competitive in terms of price versus the full cost of importation, but the main benefits are in bringing down our customers’ lead times from 3-6 months to 1-2 weeks, ending their headaches in managing the supply chain, and decreasing their working capital costs in raw material stockholdings, storage and damage to containers,” said Smuts.

Angola is the fastest-growing economy in Africa and one of the fastest growing economies in the world, and according to Bevcan, the Angolan market currently consumes around one billion cans per year.

“We want to use the Angolata factory to secure Bevcan’s current market of over 600 million cans per year, which we export from South Africa at present, and gain enough market share to justify installing a second line, which we have already laid the foundations for,” added Smuts.

Recyling operation established

Bevcan has also established Reclatas, its Angolan recycling operation as a legal entity in Angola. Smuts says this was done even before building the Angolata plant. “Reclatas is a partnership between Bevcan and its customers, which will recycle scrap from the can making process, as well as collect used beverage cans from the consumer market. We are committed to recycling and I think our Collect-a-Can operations in South Africa are testament to that,” said Smuts.

“Cans are the ideal containers as they are robust and easy to transport once they have been filled, especially when compared to glass bottles which are heavier and incur more breakages. Cans are also well suited to selling techniques in the urban areas where vendors place them in containers of ice, from where they make the sale. At the moment, can filling capacity is concentrated in Luanda, but opportunities for growth in the rest of Angola will open up as the infrastructure improves in those areas,” concluded Smuts.

Angola’s Sonangol holdings negotiates US$1 billion loan

July 5th, 2011 / macauhub

Luanda, Angola, 5 July – Sonangol Holdings is negotiating with international banks for a syndicated loan worth US$1 billion, Angolan weekly newspaper Expansão reported.

The weekly newspaper cited financial news agency Bloomberg as saying that Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank (Crédit Agricole CIB, formerly Calyon) and Standard Chartered were the banks that would head the syndicate, which includes 12 banks and will have a guarantee from state company Sociedade Nacional de Petróleos de Angola (Sonangol).

The loan has a maturity of 10 years and an interest rate of 325 basis points over Libor (London Interbank Offered Rate) and payments are due to begin at the end of the year.

The newspaper noted that the loan coincides with some changes in the oil industry, specifically the fact that Exxon Mobil, known in Angola as Esso Exploration, plans to sell the 25 percent stake it owns in Block 31.

Several international groups have announced proposals of billions of dollars for the stake, including India’s ONGC, and Indonesia’s Pertamina.

Sonangol Holdings is a subsidiary of Sonangol that was set up in 2004 with the aim of developing commercial and industrial activities, managing a portfolio of shares and providing technical and administrative services to specific companies. (macauhub)

EU/AFRICA:

Russia Meets With NATO in New Push for Libyan Peace

By ANDREW E. KRAMER/ www.nytimes.com/Published: July 4, 2011

MOSCOW — Russia stepped up its efforts on Monday to negotiate a resolution to the war in Libya, with officials here receiving the president of South Africa, who has offered his services as a mediator, and the secretary general of NATO.

At the same time, the president of the World Chess Federation, who is acting as Moscow’s informal go-between with Libya’s embattled leader, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, made his second trip to Tripoli.

On his last visit, the chess official, Kirsan N. Ilyumzhinov, played a game with Colonel Qaddafi while discussing whether he would consider stepping down and leaving Libya. During the match, Mr. Ilyumzhinov said later, he maneuvered Colonel Qaddafi close to checkmate but then offered him a draw instead.

But in their conversation, Mr. Qaddafi said he intended to die on Libyan soil and would not consider any negotiated settlement that called for his departure from the country.

On Monday, Mr. Ilyumzhinov told Russian news agencies that he had met with Muhammad el-Qaddafi, the colonel’s eldest son, and had again been told that Colonel Qaddafi would not leave Libya. But the Libyan government acknowledged that its emissaries had met on numerous occasions in Europe with representatives of the Libyan opposition, and that the talks were continuing, Reuters reported.

The Russian diplomatic effort to open a channel of communication with the Libyan leader, who has been a major buyer of Russian weapons for years, began after President Dmitri A. Medvedev met with President Obama on the sidelines of a Group of 8 gathering in France in May.

At that meeting, Mr. Medvedev offered to serve as a mediator, and to use what leverage Russia has in Libya to persuade Colonel Qaddafi to cede power. To date, with the colonel refusing the Libyan rebels’ demands that he leave the country, none of Moscow’s forays have borne fruit.

Russia has sharply criticized the NATO bombing campaign as overstepping the United Nations’ mandate to protect civilians, instead apparently aiming to oust Colonel Qaddafi. Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs also condemned a recently confirmed French weapons airdrop to the Libyan rebels, saying this, too, violated the United Nations resolution. Mr. Medvedev has, however, said that Colonel Qaddafi must step down.

Sergei A. Karaganov, dean of the department of international economics and foreign affairs at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, said Russia is appealing to two constituencies. Its mediation efforts gains Moscow points with the West, while its criticism of the NATO campaign plays well in the developing world.

“It might bring results, but nobody knows,” Mr. Karaganov said. “The game, of course, includes Qaddafi. And if he has proven one thing, it is that he is not an easy person to deal with. He doesn’t respond to threats.”

“And by the way,” Mr. Karaganov added of Colonel Qaddafi and Russia, “he is profoundly distrusted here. We know him better than others.”

After Monday’s meeting with the NATO secretary general, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, at a Russian government retreat surrounded by palm trees in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi, Mr. Medvedev offered encouraging words but no specifics.

“I think all of us are inspired with the results,” he said, the Interfax news agency reported. “The meeting was rather productive, and I hope we made progress.”

Mr. Medvedev also met Monday with Jacob G. Zuma, the president of South Africa, who has negotiated on behalf of the African Union and proposed that an interim government take power in Libya, Russian state television reported. At a meeting over the weekend, the African Union called on its members to disregard an arrest warrant for Colonel Qaddafi issued by the International Criminal Court, saying the warrant could hinder any settlement that included Mr. Qaddafi seeking asylum outside of Libya.

EN BREF, CE 05 Juillet 2011 … AGNEWS/DAM,NY, 05/07/2011